LINK!!!Jan Lamprecht - 9/16/2007
Almost everyone says that when President Robert Mugabe dies, all the problems will go away and Zimbabwe will be restored to its former "glory". Indeed, many are waiting for him to step down or die, thinking that this will be the end of Zimbabwe's problems. I think everyone is wrong. I am convinced that horror that awaits Zimbabwe after Mugabe dies.
When Idi Amin ruled Uganda he killed 300,000 people. Then he was replaced by Milton Obote who went on to kill 1 million people. As bad as things get in Africa, they can always get worse!
But I want to explain to you why they will get worse after Mugabe.
Now there are people who have asked whether Morgan Tsvangirai will be any better than Robert Mugabe as a president, and whether it is wise to support the MDC. I will not waste my time discussing the merits of Morgan Tsvangirai or the MDC. Why? Because they will never get to rule Zimbabwe.
Instead, let us focus on who will be ruling Zimbabwe.
Mugabe will create a law that allows him and only him to choose his successor!
Let us ignore the media, the journalists' views, the pronouncements by the MDC and by Western governments because they are talking rubbish.
Let us examine the FACTS:
1. South Africa and Zimbabwe have a formal Military Alliance.
2. The SADC countries have a Brigade-sized military force stationed in Zambia to deal with "internal unrest" in the 14 SADC countries (which include Zimbabwe and South Africa).
3. Mugabe will hand-pick his own personal successor at some point when he feels incapable of carrying on.
I believe that all these "talks" being hosted by the South African government with respect to a new constitution in Zimbabwe is a complete waste of time. Instead, a hand-picked, hard-core Zanu(PF) politician or Military Officer will be put in power by Mugabe himself. (I would be most surprised if his successor is a woman).
Mugabe is clever. In African terms, he is a bona fide genius. Mugabe may be a bastard, but he is cunning. Mugabe is not just someone who kills everything in his path, he's devious.
Mugabe's successor will not be as bright as Mugabe. But his successor will be hard-core and will have the backing of South Africa's ruling ANC.
The successor will cling as firmly to power as Mugabe did, but he may well not have Mugabe's subtleties and he may resort to more overt force. The situation may generally have deteriorated so much by then that everyone will realize that war is the only way.
So, if the Blood Bath does not come during Mugabe's rule, it may well come during his successor's rule.
Many may fear Mugabe now, but I think people may be willing to take a bigger chance bringing his successor down and that is another reason why the bloodbath could come after Mugabe steps down.
To reiterate: I just want to sweep away all the furry, fuzzy day dreams that everyone has about Mugabe being the only problem in Zimbabwe. I have said before - Zanu(PF) is the problem and Zanu(PF) will continue to exist (with the blessing and active military/political support of South Africa's ANC), long after Mugabe has stepped down or died.
Nobody is going to make Mugabe step down. He will step down when his health fails. That is when he will step down - and not a day sooner.
And when he steps down, he will pick the toughest fighter he can find who will "defend the revolution".
As far as I'm concerned, Mugabe might even turn out to be "the good guy" when all these events are judged by the future. Mugabe's rule might even be humane compared to what is coming.
Earlier this year I was visiting Zimbabweans who now live in South Africa. The gentleman had been a Major in the Rhodesian Army. He asked me what I thought the future of Zimbabwe was. I told him I thought that it will smolder and burn slowly until one day a full civil war breaks out in the country. In the end, Zimbabwe must explode into a full scale war. When it does, the real killing will start.
If the war won't begin, then expect Zanu(PF) to remain firmly an unequivocally in power until a war does eventually start - 5, 10 or 20 years from now.
If you think Mugabe is bad, just wait until he dies! Don't expect Zimbabwe to return to "normal" in 5 or even 10 years. In 10 years, the situation might be much worse than it is now.
Jan Lamprecht was born and raised in Zimbabwe, then called Rhodesia, during the "Bush War", which resulted in Robert Mugabe coming to power. He was educated in Harare, the capital of the country, before leaving for South Africa, where he spent some time in the Navy. He wrote a book called "Government by Deception" about African politics related to Zimbabwe and the effects Mugabe's policies may have on other countries. He publishes a newsletter called Straight Talk.
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